TWOTW

I've always shied away from making predictions, because it's normally an unforeseen option that suddenly breaks big. But I know Dave Cushman at FasterFuture is keen for more people to share their best guesses. So here goes:

TheWayoftheWeb predictions for 2008

1. There will be a huge increase in users demanding faster broadband. A backlash is already starting against adverts for 'up to 8Mb', which actually gives you less than 2Mb because your house is in the wrong place, or five of your neighbours have signed up for internet access. More and more users are aware of what they could be doing with faster broadband, and are getting frustrated. When will 20Mb, 50Mb or 100Mb finally be common across the UK?

2. The inevitable increase in the average speed of broadband will send traditional broadcast media into an ever-increasing tailspin. You can already view enough entertainment via your PC or Xbox etc, but the main barrier is download times and putting up with a stream buffering every so often. Remove that, and suddenly videos can be longer, films more accessible, and I can pick whatever I want to watch, whenever I want to watch. If I want to watch 300 via my Xbox 360 tonight, I'll need to start downloading now. When I can get home and download it in less time than it takes to drive to the video store, then it becomes the only logical option.

3. Convergence and acceptance of Net and USB portable applications will hit the mainstream. It's already accepted by the cutting edge, and it's becoming ever easier to save your bookmarks, feeds, documents etc online, or to carry your favourite portable browser with you. And increasingly convergent applications mean you don't find problems transferring your information. Would you rather check-in your laptop on a trip? Or carry a USB stick?

4. The social networks which work towards convergence (e.g. Open Social, or Bebo compatibility with Facebook), will continue to grow. New launches which converge will also succeed, but those who are different for the sake of it will struggle. Noone wants to enter their favourite movie list, or pick a favourite quote, every time they create or change a profile.

5.Engagement Marketing will grow exponentially. A small number will get it right. A larger number will fake it, and get it wrong.

6. The widget-rush on social networks will slow as people come to terms with the fact most of them are novelties. We want RSS feeds and radio with our profiles. We don't want endless SuperFunAmazingWall spam. Especially when our networks only have four messages, which we then receive 500 times.

7. Online magazines will grow, and will evolve to make best use of devices like Amazon's Kindle and future devices, rather than aping their print equivalent. Your 'site' will be reproduced as a 'website', 'mobile site', 'kindle site', 'electronic paper site', 'console site', and on devices we don't even know about.

8.Gadgets integrating digital will finally gain acceptance. Already the media PC is plugged into the HDTV, or the Xbox 360 is used for music and film as well as gaming. An online fridge was an object of ridicule - why would you surf the web from a fridge rather than a PC? But a fridge which can display every recipe ever written, enables you to shop for groceries, can play music while you cook, and even allow you to watch a cookery show set-by-step makes a lot more sense. And replaces every cook book, every trip to the store, your radio, and your TV.

9.The music and film industry will continue to try and ignore the changing world in which we live, even as those small companies on the fringe rack up more and more success by changing their entire business model. And even artists themselves are linking with concert promoters, and allowing buyers to choose how they value their latest work.

10.Continued growth will still see people rushing into the digital world with pre-conceived ideas, and confidence in their ability to fake knowledge and engagement. But the community around them will be far more aware if they don't blog honestly, if they don't connect openly, and whether there is any substance behind them.



So there's some of my thoughts...for me, personally, I've got some new challenges to look forward to, new conversations to start, and around April, lots of new metaphors for the digital world which will increasingly compare it to nappies, pushchairs and rattles.

I'm going to be updating over Christmas, and finishing off the latest issue of Disposable Media, so this isn't an end-of-the-year post, but as it'll be more infrequent, here's a metaphor to leave you with...


Which pub or bar do you identify most with? Is it the generic chain pub on the High Street? Or is it the local in which you can chat to the landlord and suggest beers/food/songs for the jukebox, and he'll listen? The one that invites you too join the football team or the poll team? The one which lets you stay after it's closed to regular punters?

Now replace 'Pub' with whatever you work on.